Syllabus
1. Smoothing mortality curves - analytical methods. Variable Transformations. Gompertz, Makeham, Heligman and Pollard. Functions used and interpretation of parameters. The TOPALS model. MORTPAK for Windows Version
4.3
2. Model Life Tables I. Principles of construction: regression methods, relational methods, and multidimensional statistical methods. Model Life Tables: The United Nations Tables (1955). Gabriel and Ronen (1958), The Princeton Tables (Coale and Demeny, Vaughan, Guo). The Ledermann Tables. Input data and the limitations.
3. Model Life Tables II. W.Brass relational model life table, the relationship between the observed and reference (standard) tables. The OECD tables (groups A,B,C,D,E), The United Nations Tables (1982,
2010), The new WHO model life tables. Input data, methods of construction and the use.
4. Stationary, Stable, Semistable, and Quasi-stable Populations. Geometric and exponential growth. Leslie matrix. Population momentum concept. The impact of fertility and mortality change on population age structure.
5. Nuptiality and Fertility Models. The singulate mean age at marriage(Hajnal). Nuptiality models (Coale), common standard pattern (3 parameters), standard functions (double exponential). Fertility models (Coale Trussell), natural fertility, deviation pattern from natural fertility, marital fertility (parameters m, M). Brass relational Gompertz fertility model, cumulative proportional ASFR, gompits, equation.
6. Methods of Decomposing a Difference between Rates (Kitagawa, das Gupta). Decomposing a difference between two crude rates into two or three components (including an interaction term). Effects due to change in structure and to change in intensity. The concept of standardizing rates. The differences between two sexes, periods or two countries. Excel spreadsheets MPIDR.
7. Methods of Decomposing a Difference between Life Tables (Pressat, Pollard, Arriaga). The impact of each age-specific difference in mortality on a difference between two life expectancies. The contribution of causes of deaths (Pollard). The use of temporary life expectancy between two specific ages (Arriaga), the index of relative change, effects due to the change of mortality in each particular age group (direct and indirect effect), effect of the interaction. Excel spreadsheets MPIDR.
8. Multistate Demography I (Increment-Decrement Life Tables). Transitions from one state to another, absorbing state, non-absorbing state, reverse flows. Uniradix and multiradix tables. Transition probabilities: two options. Matrix M (observed transition rates), matrix P. Elementary multiregional life table functions), Multiregional Life Tables by place of residence, by place of birth.
9. Multistate Demography II (Marital Change Life Tables, Health status). Union formation and dissolution. Multistate scheme. Program SPACE/SAS http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/space.htm
10. Tables of Working Life. Conventional model: three assumptions. Population-based measure, Labour-force based measure. Multistate table, age-specific rates of mortality, accession, and separation; transition probabilities, alternative paths of survival and labour force attachment.
11. Health analysis. Advanced epidemiology methodology. Change in prevalence of chronic diseases and disabilities. Three theories: morbidity expansion, morbidity compression, dynamic equilibrium concept. Health expectancies; healthy Life Years (disability- free life expectancy); healthy life expectancy (self-rated health). Calculation of health expectancy (concepts of Sullivan method, double decrement life table, multistate life table). Program SPACE/SAS.
12. Age-Period-Cohort models. Variation in demographic rates due to Age effects, Period effects, Cohort effects. Estimating effects. Horiuchi-Coale approach: age-specific rate of mortality change with age: k(x). Wilmoth method based on residual analysis (SVD).
Annotation
Advanced methods in demographic analysis using multidimensional statistics and matrix algebra techniques. Model life tables and their use.
Stable, semi-stable and quazi-stable populations. Models of nuptiality and fertility.
Gains in life expectancy - Pressat and Pollard methods. Decomposition of rates in demography (das Gupta.Survival analysis, the hazard function, censoring, using survival analysis to estimate a life table.
Multistate demography, uniradix and multiradix life tables, multiregional, by marital status and working life tables. Multiple standardization for several factors, multiplicative model, proportional hazard model.
Age-period cohort models. Health life expectancy, disability free life tables, methods of Sullivan, Katz and multistate approach.