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Regional Analysis of Housing Price Bubbles and Their Determinants in the Czech Republic

Publication |
2011

Abstract

This article, based on an empirical analysis, discusses factors affecting property prices in the Czech regions. It tries to identify periods of property price overvaluation by three alternative approaches: using ratios related to house prices (price-to-income and price-to-rent), using simple analysis of time trends and using panel regression.

The analysis identified overvalued property prices in 2002/2003 and partly also in 2007/2008. Accord-ing to the panel regression however, the size of the housing price overvaluation in 2007/2008 was relatively low, as the rise in property prices in this period was largely explainable by fundamentals.

From the regional perspective, there is a tendency for higher degree of overvaluation in regions with higher property prices. The exception is Prague, which seems to be a "specific" region.