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Cohort effects in period mortality data

Publication at Faculty of Science |
2012

Abstract

The paper deals with the issue of the cohort effects which could be traced in the period data. The Czech Republic is one of those countries where significant cohort specifics could be found above all for cohorts born before, during and just after the World War I (similar effect was studied for example also in Italy).

Moreover, no cohort life tables have been constructed in the Czech Republic so far because of the lack of published historical data. Nevertheless, it is possible to find suitable methods for cohort analysis.

We start the study by application of selected graphical methods which could reveal the cohort effects visibly. Then a simple method based on the assumption of constant change of the force of mortality between two following ages across cohorts is applied.

It will be proved that these changes are nearly constant and could be modeled by selected methods of time series analysis. Then some more sophisticated methods (on the basis of APC models) are introduced and also the methods of cohort mortality extrapolation are mentioned.

All those analyses are prepared within the project aimed at the cohort life table construction in the Czech Republic. In the paper data from the Human Mortality Database are used (and also data from the Czech Statistical Office for the Czech Republic).