Abstrakt
European map of plant invasions and integrated scenarios of future socio-economic development, which were used to create three spatially explicit scenarios of European land-use change for the 21st century, are integrated to produce the first spatially explicit projections of plant invasions in Europe for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Under all scenarios an increase in the level of invasion was projected for north-western and northern Europe, and under the first two scenarios a decrease for some agricultural areas of eastern Europe where abandonment of agricultural land is expected.
A net increase in the level of invasion over Europe was projected under scenarios 2 and 3. The polarization between more and less invaded regions is likely to increase if future policies are oriented on economic deregulation, which may result in serious future problems in some areas of Europe.
However, an implementation of sustainability policies would not automatically restrict the spread of alien plants in Europe.