Publication at Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Faculty of Social Sciences |
2014
Abstract
The paper aims to predict the economic impact of Turkish EU accession with respect to migration flows. The analysis builds on the empirical evidence of past emigration flows of EU-18 to Germany and Netherlands employing the post EU Enlargement experience of Poland.
Both panel data estimators used on the European migration and empirical analysis of Polish migration behavior to the EU after 2004 suggest that Turkish accession to the EU and its access to the EU labor market would not trigger massive labor migration. The most sober scenario predicts that eventual Turkish accession would lead to the short-term increase in migration which would start to fade away quickly soon reaching pre-shock levels.