Response of alpine lakes and soils to changes in acid deposition: the MAGIC model applied to the Tatra Mountain region, Slovakia-Poland
Abstract
A dynamic, process-based model, MAGIC, was applied to 31 alpine lakes in the Tatra Mountains (/~50% of all alpine lakes >0.3 ha). The model was calibrated to observed lake chemistry for the period 1980-2002.
Surface water and soil chemistry were forecast to 2020 based on the reduction in sulphur and nitrogen emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. In the 1860s, all lakes were buffered by the carbonate system and only /~6% of lakes had acid neutralising capacity (ANC) <20 µeq/l.
Lake acidification progressed until 1980s, at which time 23% of lakes had a depleted carbonate buffering system and 33% of lakes had ANC <20 µeq/l. Reversal of water chemistry from acidification started in the late 1980s as a response to decreasing acid deposition.
ANC has increased such that only /~16% of lakes currently have ANC <20 µeq/l. The full implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol will not be sufficient to allow recovery of 10% of lakes, which will remain acidified after 2020.