Inequality as rule - sorting the international hierarchy of powers with methodology of strategic potential analysis
Abstract
he scope of this paper is methodological, thus technical. The unambiguous goal is to discuss several methods and point out precise tools, in order to measure and to analyze states' strategic potential, naturally within the domain of Strategic Studies.
This assignment corresponds partially to Glassner's definition of geopolitics, crossing also geostrategic field, and emphasizing its relevance to the political decision-making process, creating a bridge between the University and political praxis. Accepting these considerations, nonetheless, several theoretical tasks have to be previously accomplished to the choice of a model for strategic potential analysis, e.g. definition of the concept of Strategy, distinction between potential and power, to mention differences between strategic potential analysis and strategic planning, and certainly a brief enumeration of different theoretical perspectives about how to evaluate States' strategic potential (e.g.
Spykman, Morgenthau, Cline). Within its second part, the paper will be devoted to an interdisciplinary framework, nothing less than explanation of the model for strategic potential analysis created by General Cabral Couto, a model structured in nine factors: Physical factor, Human factor, Resources and Communications factor, Historical factor, Economic factor, Societal and Cultural factor, Scientific-technological factor, Political and Administrative factor and Military factor.
In spite of the choice of this model, it is well underlined the absolutely essential role of introspection, objectivity and the use of other instruments from qualitative analysis, concerning an evaluation as exact as possible, with the objective of avoiding major misunderstandings in State's strategic potential that would certainly come from the 'simple' use of a mathematical and abstract model. The complexity of the international environment, caused by multivariate conditions, does not allow any mechanist and/or determinist conception.