Assessing the potential impact of increased participation in higher education on mortality: Evidence from 21 European populations
Abstrakt
The aim of the present analysis was therefore to estimate future reductions in mortality due to further improvements in educational attainment in 21 European populations. To do so, we developed counterfactual scenarios using the changing social distribution of educational attainment over time, and applied these scenarios.
We used mortality and population data according to educational level from 21 European populations and developed two scenarios. The first scenario represented the improvement in the future distribution of educational attainment as expected on the basis of an assumption of cohort replacement.
We estimated the effect of this counterfactual scenario on mortality with a 10-15-year time horizon among men and women aged 30-79 years using a specially developed tool based on population attributable fractions (PAF). We compared this with a second, upward levelling scenario in which everyone has obtained tertiary education.
The reduction of mortality in the cohort replacement scenario ranged from 1.9 to 10.1% for men and from 1.7 to 9.0% for women. The reduction of mortality in the upward levelling scenario ranged from 22.0 to 57.0% for men and from 9.6 to 50.0% for women.
The cohort replacement scenario was estimated to achieve only part (4-25% (men) and 10-31% (women)) of the potential mortality decrease seen in the upward levelling scenario. We concluded that the effect of on-going improvements in educational attainment on average mortality in the population differs across Europe, and can be substantial.
Further investments in education may have important positive side-effects on population health.