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Snow avalanche run-out simulations of various events in Carpathian mountain

Publication at Faculty of Science |
2010

Abstract

Since the beginning of modern-snow and avalanche science the run-outs have been always subject of exhaustive research. For avalanche hazard zoning and decision-making concerning land use in mountainous environment it was crucial to investigate the possible outline of avalanche run-outs.

The winter of 2008/2009 and its consequences confirmed the importance of implementation of run-out simulations into decision procedures. For the purpose of the study two approaches of run-out calculation were used.

The first one was based of dynamic simulations; models RAAMS and AVAL-1D were used. The second approach was based on the application of alpha-beta statistical model.

Various avalanche events in Poland, Slovakia and Romania were selected and visited in the field in order to obtain data on avalanches extents. In the case of Žiarska valley, where disastrous avalanche occurred, the snow deposition was surveyed with submeter accuracy GPS stations.

Flow heights and run-outs were back calculated and compared with data obtained by field surveys. Comparison revealed that the difference between simulation results and field data varies in space.

The work also showed the strength and weakness of both approaches.