The basic concepts and principles of the construction of age-period-cohort models

Abstract

The aim of the article is to examine the age-period-cohort models that are used to evaluate the trends of various population indicators (e.g. mortality, fertility). This approach is mainly used when we have no available data on the potential risk or protective factors (e.g. lifestyle) affecting population indicators.

The advantages and disadvantages of age-period-cohort modelling are described and their use is illustrated on the basis of examples of Czech male mortality.

Keywords

• Lexis diagram
• age-period-cohort
• identification problem
• generalised linear model
• prediction
• male mortality
• Czech Republic