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Concept of prospective age and its application to selected indicators of demographic aging

Publication at Faculty of Science |
2016

Abstract

Demographic ageing is often called a phenomenon of the 21st century. However, it is a natural process, which we more or less consciously influence.

Population ageing is the result of improvements to the health status of the population and the enhancement of the quality of human life that began in the 18th century as part of the demographic revolution. Current concerns about the sustainability of national welfare systems in the context of population ageing are obviously reasonable, but these concerns are based on the standard characteristics of the age structure, which often use a fixed age of entry into the final stage of life.

However, with the lengthening of human life the natural boundaries of old age change. Alternative indicators based on the concept of prospective age do not use the number of years a person has already lived, but the number of years that a person will probably live.

This paper presents the concept of a prospective age using data on the population of the Czechia, Slovakia, Sweden and Italy in the years 1950-2013, focusing on a comparison of the development of standard and prospective indicators of demographic ageing in time.