Abstrakt
The paper uses a monetary economy to derive a 'Taylor rule' along the dynamic path and within the business cycle frequency of simulated data, a Fisher equation within the low frequency of simulated data, and predictions of Lucas-like policy changes that shift balanced growth path equilibria and expectations. The inflation coefficient is always greater than one when the velocity of money exceeds one, thus exhibiting robust Taylor principle behavior in a monetary economy.
Successful estimates of the magnitude of the coefficient on inflation and the rest of the interest rate equation are presented using Monte Carlo simulated data for both business cycle and medium term frequencies. Policy analysis shows the biases in interest rate predictions as depending on whether changes in structural parameters and expectations about variables are correctly included.