Abstrakt
Demographic aging is often called a phenomenon of the 21st century. However, it is a natural process, which we more or less consciously influence.
Population aging is the result of improving the health status of the population and enhancing the quality of human life that has already begun in the 18th century in the context of demographic revolution. The current concern about the sustainability of national social systems in the context of population aging are obviously reasonable, but these concerns are based on the standard characteristics of the age structure, which often use a fixed age of entry into the final stage of life.
However, with the lengthening of human life the natural boundaries of old age changes. Alternative indicators on the basis of the concept of prospective age do not use the number of years a person has already lived, but the number of years that a person will probably live.
The aim of the study was to introduce the concept of prospective age and its application on age-structure characteristics. Using standard indicators and their comparison in time may in many cases be problematic because of the significant changes especially in the field of mortality and health.
Prospective characteristics are adapted to changes in life expectancy and therefore better capture the reality of demographic aging. Integration of prospective approach to socio-economic systems could save state spending on pensions in countries with high life expectancy, respectively remaining life expectancy, as well as the appropriate application could be allowed to focus on those who need support.
However, the use of prospective fluctuating ages has its difficulties. For example, it might be difficult for individuals to plan their own future.
The paper presents the concept of a prospective age on the data of population of the Czechia, Slovakia, Sweden and Italy in the years 1950-2013, focusing on a comparison of the development of standard and prospective indicators in time.