Growing gap in population dynamics, closing gap in population size: the European Union and the United States compared
Abstract
This paper investigates the differences in population development in the European Union and the United States. The population projections recently published by the United Nations forecast a slowdown in growth and expected shrinking of the EU population and a continued growth in the US.
Therefore, the paper aims to ascertain which components of population change are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics. The article first explores the role of natural change and migration in total population growth.
Then, it investigates fertility and mortality patterns focusing on the demographic behavior of ethnic/racial groups in the US and the regional disparities in Europe. The paper documents that fertility differences are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics in the EU and the US that is reflected in the forecasted convergence toward the same population size