How to avoid social loss in agriculture caused by climate change in the South Moravian Region in the next 20 years. Economic analysis of adaptation measures to climate change.
Abstrakt
The paper evaluates the economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in the South Moravian Region in the next 20 years. The evaluation is carried out on 36 cadastral territories for the period 2017-2040 and is based on the concept of ecosystem services is used in the evaluation.
The results are presented in several scenarios where the impacts were assessed. The scenarios are based on modelling the impacts of climate change in this territories.
The scenarios differ in the setting: whether the current situation will be maintained or the situation will get worse due to the climate change and whether any adaptation measures will be implemented or not. The aim of the article is to show the economic (social) importance of implementing adaptation measures.
The evaluation is based on an anthropocentric approach using a modified cost-benefit analysis. The analysis includes investment costs, operating costs, loss of profits connected with loss of production and benefits.
Based on models the impacts were quantified and monetized (e.g. impact associated with soil erosion, nutrient loss or water retention capacity). Paper comes up with the results that without reflection of the climate change and without realization of measures the net present social benefits are negative (net loss higher than CZK 6.6 billion), the climate changes will make the situation worse (net loss CZK 9.5 billion) for the period 2017-2040.
In the case of modelling impacts of climate change and the implementation of adaptation measures, the net social benefits are CZK 2.1 billion. Based on the results, the implementation of the adaptation measures is recommended, regardless of whether climate change occurs.
If the net social benefits are not achieved, the net social loss will be at least minimized. Implementation of the measures thus appears necessary to maintain the sustainability of agricultural land use.
The results can be used as an argument for political decision-making.