Abstract
The present paper explores the Kessler Syndrome (the potentially catastrophic accumulation of debris in the Low-Earth Orbit) through System Dynamics methodology. It models satellites and three classes of debris, their fragmentation, interactions and gradual decay over 50 years.
It presents five scenarios: a) a "business as usual" approach, which leads to exponential accumulation and growing rate of satellite losses, but no catastrophic chain reaction; b) a conflict with a large-scale deployment of Anti-Satellite Weapons, leading to an accelerated accumulation and losses, but still no chain reaction; c) EMP scenario modeling loss of control over satellites en mass; d) cessation of all LEO satellite launches, illustrating high inertia of the system, which continues to produce more debris; and e) scenario representing an attempt to mitigate the situation via direct removal of some portion of inactive satellites from the LEO. All scenarios take place in 2040.
The paper demonstrates the gravity of the situation and the necessity for a sustainable long-term solution, as orbital debris poses a threat to our future space operation even without triggering a catastrophic chain reaction.