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Exchange rate dynamics and its effect on macroeconomic volatility in selected CEE countries

Publication at Faculty of Social Sciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Centre for Economic Research and Graduate Education |
2017

Abstract

We identify economies with a significant long-run relative contribution of asymmetric shocks to exchange rate volatility: in Romania, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic this contribution is over 40%, and for the rest of the group it is around 30%. Our findings also show that economies in the region exhibit heterogeneous monetary policy responses due to asymmetries present both within the region and vis-a-vis the rest of the economies considered.

These asymmetries are partially due to different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes (for non-member countries) and to structural differences (for example, TFP levels and levels of nominal prices). At the same time, our results are consistent with the real exchange rate having a shock absorption role in CEE countries.