Abstract
The efficiency/security trade-off hypothesis has become prominent in the field of criminal network analysis, although it has been empirically tested in only a small number of studies. This hypothesis states that criminal networks and actors involved generally manoeuver between the immediate profit from their activities (efficiency) and working slowly towards long-term goals while remaining undetected (security).
It has been argued that whether the structure of the criminal network is efficient or secure depends on the goal of the particular network. That is, networks driven by financial profit (e.g., drug traffickers) are supposed to opt for efficiency, whereas networks driven by ideology (e.g., terrorists) are supposed to opt for secure network structure.
In our study we focus on five network mechanisms derived from the efficiency/security trade-off, that is, density, centralization, closure, brokerage and the balance between closure and brokerage. Specifically, we identify for each mechanism tension between individual motives of actors in the criminal network and the overall structure of the network, which may even contradict the initial individual motivation.
This is tested on 11 profit-driven and 8 ideology-driven criminal networks using comparison of descriptive measures based on permutation tests and exponential random graph models (ERGMs) with their subsequent within- and between-type comparison. Results show very little support for the theory - where the theory predicts differences between these two types of criminal networks, there are either none or they are the other way around than the theory suggests.
Moreover, there are greater within-group differences than between-group differences in terms of ERGM results, which suggests that the criminal network structures are brought about by the same underlying micro-level mechanisms. Findings are discussed in the light of the refinement of theory by accounting for network dynamics in response to changing environment, individual psychological predispositions, and reformulating the theory at the micro-level.