Modeling the Age-Associated Decrease in Mortality Rate for Congenital Anomalies of the Central Nervous System Using WHO Metadata From Nine European Countries
Abstrakt
Background: In humans, the mortality rate dramatically decreases with age after birth, and the causes of death change significantly during childhood. In the present study, we attempted to explain age-associated decreases in mortality for congenital anomalies of the central nervous system (CACNS), as well as decreases in total mortality with age.
We further investigated the age trajectory of mortality in the biologically related category "diseases of the nervous system" (DNS). Methods: The numbers of deaths were extracted from the mortality database of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the following nine countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia.
Because zero cases could be ascertained over the age of 30 years in a specific age category, the Halley method was used to calculate the mortality rates in all possible calendar years and in all countries combined. Results: Total mortality from the first day of life up to the age of 10 years and mortality due to CACNS within the age interval of (0, 90) years can be represented by an inverse proportion with a single parameter.
High coefficients of determination were observed for both total mortality (R-2 = 0.996) and CACNS mortality (R-2 = 0.990). Our findings indicated that mortality rates for DNS slowly decrease with age during the first 2 years of life, following which they decrease in accordance with an inverse proportion up to the age of 10 years.
The theory of congenital individual risk (TCIR) may explain these observations based on the extinction of individuals with more severe impairments, as well as the bent curve of DNS, which exhibited an adjusted coefficient of determination of (R) over bar (2) = 0.966. Conclusion: The coincidence between the age trajectories of all-cause and CACNS-related mortality may indicate that the overall decrease in mortality after birth is due to the extinction of individuals with more severe impairments.
More deaths unrelated to congenital anomalies may be caused by the manifestation of latent congenital impairments during childhood.