What happens when microfinance programmes are withdrawn? A conceptual framework for analysing causal effects
Abstract
Most microfinance impact studies have focused on measuring the causal impact of introducing a new microfinance institution (MFI) on business and household development indicators. However, over the last decade, the microfinance community has witnessed the unfortunate termination of a number of microfinance institutions in several developing countries.
This paper develops a conceptual framework for measuring the causal impact, and obtaining a comprehensive analysis of the consequences, of withdrawing microfinance programmes. The conceptual framework is suitable for both academic research for robust impact evaluation and policy makers for comprehensive assessment of the overall impact of withdrawing microfinance programmes.
A practical example of the application of this framework is provided for analysing the termination of non-bank MFIs in Uzbekistan.