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Not All Incumbents Are Created Equal: Incumbency vs. ruling advantage in the Czech municipalities

Publication at Faculty of Mathematics and Physics |
2020

Abstract

Majority of the research on incumbency advantage has been conducted using data from countries using winner-takes-all electoral systems which cannot delineate between the effect of holding a seat (incumbency effect) and belonging to a ruling coalition (ruling effect), while the evidence from proportional representation systems provides mixed results. Using the data from the Czech municipal elections, I found that not all candidates are advantaged in the same manner.

In particular, the results of regression discontinuity design does not indicate any support for incumbency advantage in the Czech municipal elections. In contrast to that, the regression models indicate that the probability of re-election in the consecutive elections increases depending on the candidates' position within the ruling coalition.

On the individual level, the most beneficial positions are those of a mayor and deputy mayor which increase the probability of re-election. In addition, these positions are also advantaged by the media exposure.

In municipalities publishing municipal newsletters, mayors and deputy mayors benefit from the media coverage in contrast to other elected deputies. Also, the number of occurrences in the municipal newsletters is associated with a higher probability of reelection in the consecutive elections.

The results, thus, indicate in the Czech case the incumbency advantage is driven primarily by the access to resources by the elected officials which is higher in the case of mayors and deputy mayors who are usually professional politicians, while the rest of elected deputies receive modest financial rewards.