The impact of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict on military expenditures of European states: security alliances or geography?
Abstract
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has shaken the European post-Cold War security order. In response, European leaders started to talk about the need to strengthen the defense of European nations.
This article quantitatively analyses changes in military expenditures of European states in the aftermath of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. There are significant differences in changes in ME's of European states, which however cannot be explained by freeriding within NATO, the relative power of individual states, within-state variables or by membership in the EU.
Instead, our results indicate that it was the distance from Russia which drove changes. Interestingly, while traditional operationalization of distance based on fly distance from capital-to-capital showed strong explanatory power, our operationalization based on road distance fared even better.
Our results indicate that even in the 21st century distance remains an important geopolitical factor.