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Simulation of non-pharmaceutical interventions in an agent based epidemic model

Publication at Faculty of Social Sciences, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Centre for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Third Faculty of Medicine |
2021

Abstract

The standard SEIR equation-based models represent the state-of-the-art approach in epidemiological modelling. Their drawbacks include unrealistic infection-related contact estimates and difficulties in modelling non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as contact reductions or partial closures.

In this paper, we present our agent-based model that addresses the above-mentioned issues. It works with a population of individuals (agents) and their contacts are modelled as a multi-graph social network according to real data based on a Czech county.

Custom algorithmic procedures simulating testing, quarantine and partial closures of various contact types are implemented. The model can serve as a tool for relative comparison of the efficacy of various policies.

It was also used for a study comparing various interventions in Czech primary and secondary schools, using a graph based on real data from a selected Czech school.