Causes of deviations from the CNB's inflation targets: an empirical analysis

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors that caused deviations from the CNBs inflation targets during the first ten years of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic. While in the short term, shocks to agricultural producer prices represent the most important factor, exchange rate shocks are clearly the most important medium-term factor.

At the same time, it could not be proved that monetary policy created any major shocks contributing to the non-fulfillment of inflation targets, although some role thereof cannot be excluded either.

Keywords

• inflation targeting
• VAR model
• exchange rate