Development of electricity and heating in the Czech Republic: technological mix, fuel consumption and emissions production 2020-2050
Abstract
This study uses the TIMES-CZ energy system model to evaluate 5 scenarios of the future development of the Czech energy system. The reference scenario "NKEP" is derived from the National Plan of the Czech Republic in the field of energy and climate (MIT 2019).
The "REF" scenario is derived from the European Commission's REF2020 scenario (EC 2021) and the "REG" and "CPRICE" scenarios are derived from the REG and CPRICE scenarios of the same name contained in the Impact Assessment of Europe's 2030 Climate Action Plan (CTP2030; EC 2020). The NKEP_zero and REG scenarios aim to approach carbon neutrality in 2050.
For the NKEP, CPRICE and REG scenarios, sensitivity analyzes of the impact of the emission allowance price (EUA) and variants of nuclear energy development on the Czech energy system are performed. The TIMES-CZ model seeks a cost optimum for the entire energy system of the Czech Republic to minimize the total discounted costs for the entire period under review, between 2015 and 2050.
Significant factors influencing the consumption of individual primary sources and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are fuel prices together with the price of allowances in the EU ETS.