Abstract
On August 5th, 2022, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with his counterpart, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in the Russian resort of Sochi to discuss several current economic, political, and security issues. The topics of the joint meeting included the war in Ukraine and the related food crisis in Africa and the Middle East, the construction of Turkey's first nuclear power plant, which is to be carried out by the Russian Rosatom, and the transfer of part of Turkish payments for Russian natural gas to rubles.
In addition to the joint statement, in which the heads of state agreed to strengthen cooperation in the fields of transport, agriculture, finance, and construction, the two leaders "reaffirmed their determination to act in coordination and solidarity in the fight against all terrorist organizations" in Syria. However, the results of the negotiations did not bring a fundamental breakthrough in the form of Russian permission or acceptance of a possible Turkish offensive into northern and northeastern Syria.
So, what is the current situation in northern Syria? What is Turkey's goal and how does Russia view the ongoing situation? And what role does the Islamic State (IS) play in this situation? In the words of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the long-term goal is to create a "thirty-kilometer wide security zone" in northern Syria, which would prevent possible incursions by the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), the armed wing of the Democratic Union Party (PYD). PYD is the leading component of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which administers the Syrian provinces of Hasakah, Deir Ezzor, and Raqqa (together with other parts of the provinces in northern Syria).
PYD is an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been fighting for Kurdish autonomy and Kurdish rights in Turkey since the 1980s. The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization not only by Turkey but also by the United States (US) or the European Union (EU).
Ankara has long termed the YPG elements as "terrorists" and perceives their existence in neighboring Syria as a threat to its national security. A possible offensive would not be surprising, since Turkey has already attacked YPG positions in Syria several times in the past years.