Abstract
Political elites in Central Asian positioned themselves in a neutral position from the beginning of the Russian invasion to the Ukraine. Economical impacts will probably become evident in the second half of 2022 and the beginning of 20223.
Any result of the war (Russian defeat and enormous subsidies to occupation administration in the Ukraine). It will move the Russian attention outside Central Asia.
Such decreasing of the Russian influence could lead to the emergence of the Chinese and partially Turkish role in the region. Any economic problems in Russia will be quickly reflected in local economies and can also have a destabilization effect on local regimes.