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Examining voter turnout using multiscale geographically weighted regression: The case of Slovakia

Publikace na Přírodovědecká fakulta |
2023

Tento text není v aktuálním jazyce dostupný. Zobrazuje se verze "en".Abstrakt

Voter turnout is an essential aspect of elections and often reflects the attitude of a country's population towards democracyand politics. Therefore, examining the distribution of voter turnout and determining the factors that influence whetheror not people will vote is crucial.

This study aims to find significant factors that underlie the different levels of electoralparticipation across regions in Slovakia during the 2020 parliamentary elections. In this interpretation, special attentionis paid to the ability of the main theories of voter turnout to explain the behaviour of Slovak voters.

The primary analyticaltool is multiscale geographically weighted regression, which represents an advanced local regression modelling variant.The results indicate that the multiscale geographically weighted regression is superior to the global ordinary least squaremodel in virtually all aspects. Voter turnout is generally higher in economically and socially prosperous localities andregions, which is in line with the societal modernisation theory.

Additionally, factors connected to mobilisation theory andthe concept of 'left behind places' also proved to be valuable. However, in other cases, such as with the share of retirees andpotential habitual voting, the outcomes were not overly convincing, and further research is required.