Abstract
We collected over 1600 estimates on the relationship between bank capital and lending and construct 40 variables to capture the context in which these estimates are obtained. Accounting for potential publication bias, we find that a 1 percentage point (pp) increase in capital (regulatory) ratio results in around 0.3 pp increase in annual credit growth, while changes to capital requirements cause a decrease of around 0.7 pp.
Using Bayesian and frequentist model averaging, we show that the relationship between bank capital and lending changes over time, reflecting the post-crisis period of increasingly demanding bank capital regulation and subdued profitability. We also find that the reported estimates of semi-elasticities are significantly influenced by the empirical approach chosen by researchers.
Our findings suggest that the literature fails to provide policymakers with reliable estimates of the effects of capital regulation on bank lending, and our study offers insights that could help guide future research.