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Prigozhin Has Lost, but Putin Is Struggling to Win

Publication

Abstract

The overall outcome of the two months since the Wagner mutiny is that even though Prigozhin has already lost, Putin is still struggling to win. The Russian leader turned out to be unable to address some of the fundamental underlying causes that sparked the Wagner crisis.

He failed to deal with Prigozhinism in the minds of the people and in the ranks of his own elite. Neither did he sufficiently "Prigozhinize" his own policies and rhetoric by taking a more uncompromising approach to winning the war.

After Prigozhin's plane crashed, Putin will be believed by many to have demonstrated toughness. However, his more belligerent opponents will likely think that his willpower is aimed primarily at protecting his persistent weakness, indecisiveness, and half-heartedness.